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National-Level Fact Sheets Analyse Transport Emissions Projections and Potential for More Than 140 Countries

The SLoCaT Partnership has produced a compilation of national-level transport emissions fact sheets for more than 140 countries. These fact sheets provide an integrated tool for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Parties to optimize transport mitigation measures, which can in turn be incorporated forthcoming revisions to Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by assessing the potential for alternate transport emissions trajectories below business-as-usual (BAU) baselines. In addition, these national fact sheets can provide an at-a-glance comparison of transport emissions trends among different countries, which can assist policy makers at the global level.

Inputs to the country fact sheets include both historic and projected business-as-usual (BAU) growth trajectories for both economy-wide and transport-sector specific emissions. These trajectories are based on a number of sources, which includenational communications (NCs) and biennial reports/biennial update reports (BRs/BURs) submitted through the UNFCCC process, and a range of available transport sector mitigation potential studies derived from modeling efforts by government agencies, development banks, and other research organizations.

Outputs of the country fact sheets include graphical presentations of alternate emissions scenarios in the transport sector, which can help in determining an appropriate degree of mitigation ambition for transport sector reductions to be reflected in economy-wide INDCs, based on ranges determined by historic transport emissions trends and assessed transport sector mitigation potential.

Tier I fact sheets have been created for about 70 developed and developing countries for which detailed emissions targets and projection data are available. These countries account for a combined total of about 76% of current global transport sector emissions. Tier I fact sheets are based on emissions data reported to the UNFCCC, INDC submissions, and mitigation potential studies from internal and external sources.

Tier II fact sheets have been created for about 78 countries for which detailed targets and projection data are not available, and therefore must be estimated based on detailed data available from other countries. Economy-wide and transport sector-specific emissions are collated from sources including UNFCCC national reports, INDC submissions, the UNEP Pledge Pipeline Tool,World Bank – World Development Indicators, and tools developed by the World Resources Institute and PBL Netherlands, among others. Tier II transport sector BAU and low carbon scenario projections are derived as detailed in this methodological note.

Information contained in the national transport emissions fact sheets is illustrated in the following comparison of key transport trends for (Tier I) and Benin (Tier II):

Mexico (Tier I)

  • Mexico’s transport sector contributed roughly 22% of the country’s total CO2e emissions in 2010, as transport sector CO2e emissions increased by 76% (while economy-wide CO2 emissions increased by 33%) from 1990 to 2010.
  • Official BAU projections state that transport sector CO2e emissions are likely to increase 68% between 2010 and 2030, while studies carried out by development agencies and research institutions project a BAU increase between 51% and 108% during this period.
  • Mexico’s INDC states an unconditional mitigation target of 22% for greenhouse gases and a reduction of 51% for black carbon by 2030. In addition, Mexico has stated a conditional target of 36% for GHGs and 70% for black carbon with international support.
  • Mitigation studies carried out by development agencies and other institutions project potential reductions in the transport sector of 21% to 47% below BAU under a low-carbon scenario. This suggests that Mexico’s transport sector could contribute a proportional share of its overall GHG reduction targets (as established in its INDC) if proposed mitigation actions are implemented.

A summary of Mexico’s projected and potential transport emissions is shown in Figure 1:

1Mexico.jpg
Figure 1: Mexico Projected and Potential Transport Emissions

Benin (Tier II)

  • Between 1990 and 2010, Benin’s transport sector CO2e emissions grew from 0.16 to 3.1 Mt (an increase of 940%), while economy-wide CO2e emissions only increased by 75%.
  • Studies carried out by research institutions project that Benin’s transport emissions are expected to more than double between 2010 and 2030. Official estimates suggest that by 2030, transport sector emissions could account for 23% of economy-wide emissions.
  • Mitigation potential studies suggest that by 2030, Benin’s transport sector emissions could be reduced 26% from a BAU scenario, suggesting that low carbon efforts currently proposed in the transport sector must be scaled up to yield significant reductions and to meet INDC targets.

A summary of Benin’s projected and potential transport emissions is shown in Figure 2:

1Benin.jpg

 

Figure 2: Benin Projected and Potential Transport Emissions

The complete set of Tier I and Tier II fact sheets can be downloaded at this SLoCaT webpage.

 

 

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