ICCT releases Global transportation energy and climate roadmap

This report evaluates the historical and potential impact of transportation policies on worldwide oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Policies adopted and formally announced since 2000 will have dramatic effects: reductions of 14 percent in global oil consumption and 7 percent in global economy-wide GHG emissions below the IEA’s projected 2030 levels. Spreading advanced regulatory standards and cost-effective technologies throughout major markets, coupled with shifts to low-carbon modes, could more than double those reductions, stabilizing global transportation emissions by 2020.

Nevertheless, the report makes it clear that the transportation sector is not on a path to achieve the 50 to 85 percent reduction by 2050 (from 2000 levels) necessary to constrain global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius. That goal will require more creative and ambitious policies, along with a transformation of vehicle technologies and transportation systems.

The Global transportation energy and climate roadmap is intended for government regulators, policy makers, and other stakeholders wrestling with these critical policy issues. The analysis is based on the ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap model, an analytical tool that draws upon the best available data on global and national transportation emissions and policies.

Policies adopted since 2000 in China, Europe, North America, and elsewhere will reduce global oil-equivalent consumption by 9.7 million barrels per day (Mboe/day) and GHG emissions by 1.9 metric gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2030—approximately 9 percent of global oil consumption and 4 percent of global all-sector GHG emissions from 2030 levels projected by the IEA .

If adopted according to current expectations, policies in the pipeline will further increase these benefits. Together, adopted and pipeline policies represent reductions of 14.5 Mboe/day and 2.9 GtCO2e in 2030, equivalent to a 14 percent reduction in global oil consumption and a 7 percent reduction in global economy-wide GHG emissions from 2030 levels.

The full benefits of concerted regulatory action and rapid penetration of cost-effective technologies are illustrated by light-duty vehicle (LDV) policies. The global LDV stock is on track to double from 2000 to 2030, rising from 640 million to 1.5 billion, yet oil consumption and GHG emissions from LDVs will stabilize in 2025.

Expansion of best-practice policies—including vehicle efficiency, mode shift, and activity reduction policies—and cost-effective technologies across the globe would result in oil and emission reductions of 28.6 Mboe/day and 5.8 GtCO2e in 2030, equivalent to a 28 percent drop in global oil consumption and a 13 percent cut in global economy-wide GHG emissions from 2030 levels. This level of reduction would essentially stabilize transportation emissions by the year 2020.

Contact: Cristiano Façanha, cristiano@theicct.org.

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