Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDCs) represent a unique opportunity to increase bold mitigation and adaptation measures in transport and other sectors, as for the first time, Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) countries are communicating their commitment to reduce emissions and increase resilience on sectorial scales in the context of the UNFCCC system.
Among 133 INDCs representing 160 countries that were submitted as of November 12, 2015, 77% explicitly identify the transport sector as a mitigation source, and more than 61% of INDCs propose transport sector specific mitigation measures. In addition, 10% of INDCs include a transport sector emission reduction target, and 14% of INDCs include assessments of country-level transport mitigation potential.
Transport related actions in the INDCs are heavily skewed towards passenger transport, which is included in 89% of INDCs identifying specific transport modes. Among these, urban transport measures are mentioned in 86% of INDCs, and heavy rail and inland waterway are also well represented, while strategies such as high-speed rail (2%), and walking and cycling (12%) have received relatively less attention.
On an economy-wide scale, mitigation measures proposed in INDCs are expected to fall short of a two-degree Celsius scenario (2DS). Based on existing policies and levels of ambition expressed in INDCs, it is also unlikely that the transport sector will attain a 2DS by 2030through the targets and measures proposed. In order to achieve deeper emission cuts that would put the transport sector on track fora 2DS, transport mitigation ambition as expressed in INDCs would need to be intensified and additional transport measures would need to be prioritized in implementation strategies.
Adaptation, although being mentioned in an economy-wide scope in 82%of 133 INDCs submitted to date, has generally received less attention than mitigation in INDCs. The transport sector is mentioned in general terms among climate adaptation measures in 17% of INDCs, and only 5% of countries identify transport-specific adaptation strategies.