This report explores land transport emissions trends and mitigation potential relative to the 2-degree Celsius Target(2DS) and 1.5 degree Celsius Target(1.5DS)called for under the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The main objective of this assessment is to estimate the magnitude of mitigation possible in the transport sector by 2050, considering low-carbon policies proposed and/or investigated for implementation in 60 individual countries3with detailed emissions projections to 2050, which in 2010 accounted for about 89% of global land transport sector emissions about 76% of population, and about 84% of global GDP.The magnitude of emission reduction achieved through the implementation of low-carbon policies is compared with emission reductions in the transport sector consistent with achieving a two-degree Celsius scenario (2DS) target or 1.5DS target, as defined under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
This study considers a 2050 time-frame and a 1.5 degree Celsius scenario (1.5DS) target, and is one of the first global meta-analyses of long-term (2050) transport sector emissions by aggregating “bottom-up” country transport CO2 estimates for 2050. This meta-analysis uses one of the largest existing collections of literature outside the IPCC process, considering insights from many modeling studies. Land transport passenger and freight activity is set to double between 2013 to 2050 if no additional low-carbon policies are adopted and implemented, and thus a mere evolution of current transport policies will not be sufficient to reach a 2DS or 1.5DS. Limiting climate change to 1.5-degree Celsius means nothing short of de-carbonizing transport around mid-century or soon afterward in the most advanced economies, (2070 in less-developed countries), and thus transformational changes in thinking and behavior, and new approaches to policy, technology and investments are required.
A bottom-up analysis considering additional transport mitigation measures shows potential to approach a 2-degreescenario (if all modeled policies are implemented), but would still fall well short of a 1. 5-degree scenario. It is clear therefore that current policies and measures being considered for individual countries are generally inadequate and more transformational measures are needed. As such, more ambitious transport mitigation measures are needed to reach the 1. 5-degreescenario targeted in the Paris Climate Agreement.