This new report highlights solutions which can be implemented in the short term and have the potential to make a significant contribution to a “Beyond 2°C” scenario for the mobility sector. The Open Lab’s “Beyond 2°C” community brings together about twenty major companies from the mobility sector committed to making a positive contribution to tackling climate change.

The transport sector is a key player in achieving the <2°C target:

The transport sector is the third largest contributor in terms of CO2 emission, it accounts for 24% of the global energy-related CO2 emissions (9.4 GtCO2 as of 2014) and its share is projected to grow to 26% by 2030 (11,4 GtCO2) in a business-as-usual scenario, while a “beyond 2°C” scenario would require limiting CO2 emissions to 7.9 GtCO2 by 2030.

The Open Lab Mobility takes the opportunity of the World Economic Forum’s 2018 Annual Meeting and its “Shaping the Future of Mobility” initiative to provide concrete recommendations for policy makers on the implementation and scale-up of innovative clean mobility solutions. Compared to a business-as-usual scenario, active deployment of the solutions highlighted in this report could lead to reducing CO2 emissions from the transport sector in 2030 by 5.3% (0.6 GtCO2e) in a conservative scenario and by 12.3% (1.4 GtCO2e) in an optimum scenario. This represents 15% to 40% of the mitigation effort necessary for the transport sector to be in line with the IEA’s “beyond 2°C” scenario by 2030.

The potential of societal and behavior shifts to achieve short-term CO2 mitigation:

A number of solutions foster the optimization of existing infrastructure and of the current stock of vehicles. They contribute to reducing the demand for mobility or shifting to lowcarbon transport alternatives. Such solutions could be promoted to accelerate the transition and trigger emission reductions in the very short term:

– Incentive schemes in favor of behavioral and modal shifts in passenger transportation

– Eco-driving technologies and training programs

– Car-pooling applications and the sharing economy in freight transport

Out of the 3.5 GtCO2e abatement needed to be in line with the IEA’s “beyond 2°C” scenario by 2030, 3.4% (0.12 GtCO2e) could come from the large-scale deployment of these solutions in a conservative scenario, and up to 14.2% (0.49 GtCO2e) in an optimum scenario. These solutions rely on technologies that are already available on the mass-market – especially digital technologies and the use of big data solutions – but require new practices in public-policy making and the development of new types of public-private partnership. 

The medium-term potential of alternative fuels to contribute to the “Beyond 2°C Scenario”:

The most impactful solutions on a global scale rely on technologies and infrastructure that will require very important capital investments in the long term. Such solutions include:

– Sustainable biofuels

– Battery electric vehicles

– Natural gas vehicles

– Hydrogen-based fuel cell electric vehicles

Out of the 3.5 GtCO2e abatement needed to be in line with the IEA’s “beyond 2°C” scenario by 2030, 11.3% (0.40 GtCO2e) could come from the contribution of these four alternative fuels solutions in a conservative scenario, and up to 22.8% (0.80 GtCO2e) in an optimum scenario. 

Collective transportation and public vehicle fleets are a relevant scale to start deploying these solutions, in order to prove the business case and trigger significant emission reductions in urban areas.

“This study shows that Governments and the private sector can achieve significant results by working together to implement the right enabling environment, provide positive incentives to foster change, and promote the large-scale development of innovative solutions.” Says Alexis Gazzo, partner at EY Climate Change & Sustainability Services, who acted as a facilitator for the Open Lab’s “Beyond 2°C” community.

Contacts:

Alexis Gazzo, Partner, EY Climate Change & Sustainability Services

Alexis Offergeld, Director, Open Lab, Michelin

You can read the full report “Speeding Up to <2 Degree” here.