The global emissions of the transport sector are heading in the wrong direction, accounting for the fastest-growing source of emissions around the world. We must change this trend now and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underlines that a pathway for transport which contributes to maintaining global temperature rise below 1.5°C is possible. Transport enables prosperity and livelihoods. In 2021, the sector contributed 7% (USD 6.8 trillion) of the global gross domestic product and employed 5.6% of the world’s workforce (193 million people). Therefore in this era of climate emergency, it is as important as ever that countries set more ambitious, robust and actionable targets and roadmaps for the decarbonisation, the adaptation to climate change impacts and the resilience of transport and mobility systems – in a just transition.
Global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak before 2025, followed by rapid and deep emission reductions throughout 2050 in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as assessed by the IPCC. The transport sector accounted for 20.7% of global CO2 emissions in 2022. Achieving transport pathways that align with the 1.5°C target will require at least a 59% reduction in global transport CO2 emissions by 2050.
Thus, the NDC 3.0 needs to enhance action on sustainable, low carbon transport. The COP28 Global Stocktake Outcome encourages countries to accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero- and low-emission vehicles.
Historical emissions from 1950, projected emissions in 2030 based on nationally determined contributions, and emission reductions required by the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Sources: Upper panel: Historical data from the IPCC for 1950–1989 and from the 2022 NDC synthesis report for 1990–2020; 2030 projections from NDCs; and the reduction scenarios from the AR6 Synthesis Report (IPCC. 2023. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Core Writing Team, H Lee, and J Romero (eds.). Geneva: IPCC. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/). Lower panel: table SPM.5 in the AR6 Synthesis Report.
Abbreviation: LULUCF = land use, land-use change and forestry.
The GIZ-SLOCAT NDC Transport Tracker pays special attention to the level of ambition of the transport sector in the NDCs with the focus on target-setting, adaptation and resilience in transport and the scope of transport sub-sectors included.
As we collectively work to update and raise ambition in the next generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (or NDCs – efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), we would like to share a set of key recommendations for ways countries can scale up transport ambition in their NDCs.
Include specific transport sector carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation targets supported by sustainable transport measures
Setting specific targets to mitigate carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) from the transport sector can unleash the sector’s large potential to contribute to climate mitigation and the achievement of the objectives of the Paris Agreement. It may be helpful to set goals for specific sub-sectors of transport, such as cars, road freight, and aviation.
Sustainable transport measures support the achievement of these climate mitigation targets, while simultaneously addressing climate adaptation, as well as the health, equity, and social cohesion goals of the global sustainable development agenda. They are also generally easy to communicate and understand.
Some examples include:
Engage different actors – work with cities and regions, companies, civil society and academia to develop robust and implementable transport targets
Engage relevant stakeholders in a transparent, inclusive, and meaningful process to co-define knowledge-based targets and implementation frameworks in your NDC. Take into account the different capacities of each sector, and ensure the inclusion of the informal transport sector.
Cities and regions are where the majority of low carbon and sustainable transport measures are implemented, delivering key services and direct emissions reductions, while influencing more ambitious climate action by other actors. Regions play an important connecting role between national and city-level policy making. Ensure that your NDC includes institutional, legal and financial frameworks that enable and empower subnational transport action; as well as coordination of efforts across different levels of government.
Work with cities and regions, companies, civil society and academia to develop robust and implementable targets.
Maximise combined transport, climate and sustainability impacts – Use your NDC to align and integrate sustainable low carbon transport strategies with your Paris Agreement Long-Term Strategy and wider sustainable development priorities
Many countries are now setting economy-wide, net zero carbon targets for 2050, specifically including plans to decarbonise transport in order to achieve these goals. Use your NDC as an opportunity to reiterate the link between sustainable transport and climate action, and catalyse coordination and collaboration across different ministries and departments.
Sustainable, low carbon transport is crucial to the realisation of sustainable development, including the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Safe, efficient, affordable and low carbon mobility can accelerate the path to meet our shared health, clean energy, sustainable cities, and biodiversity goals (SDGs 3, 7, 11, 15), while significantly increasing equitable access to jobs and socio-economic opportunities for women and girls, and people of all ages and abilities (SDGs 5, 8,9,10).
Finally, behavioural change and social innovation must be incentivised by all levels of government, including through economic and financial policy instruments, without unduly burdening the most vulnerable and those most often left behind.
Align and integrate sustainable low carbon transport strategies with your Long-Term Emissions Development Strategies, national policy and wider sustainable development priorities.
Incorporate Avoid, Shift, and Improve strategies to reduce the negative environmental impact of transport and increase equitable access
Include strategies and policies which primarily focus on avoiding unnecessary transport, while shifting to low carbon modes, and improving vehicle design, fuel efficiency and energy sources. Improve measures can deliver defined reductions in the short-term – but in the longer-term, an estimated 50% of emission reductions will come from avoid and shift policies, which must be implemented as soon as possible.
Consider including holistic, systems-thinking solutions in your NDC, such as parking standards, reduced packaging to reduce freight volume, and online and in-home services to avoid transport demand.
A modal shift to public transport can serve multiple benefits, such as reducing daily travel emissions, improving air quality, and reducing productivity and economic losses caused by road congestion from private passenger vehicles. Shifting to active mobility by supporting improvements in walking and cycling infrastructure can significantly reduce emissions and increase equity in access to mobility, especially for the most vulnerable, while supporting healthy lifestyles.
Find out more about the Avoid-Shift-Improve strategies here.
Incorporate Avoid, Shift, and Improve strategies to reduce the negative environmental impact of transport and increase equitable access.
Shift financing and investment towards low carbon and resilient transport priorities, while making plans to eliminate transport sector fossil fuel subsidies and working to phase out internal combustion engines by the earliest date possible
Investments in low carbon and resilient mobility systems offer financial savings and quality of life benefits beyond the scale and budget of the investments themselves. To enable delivery, ensure that your NDC contains specific measures to finance sustainable and resilient low carbon transport; including plans to shift investment away from high carbon transport towards lower carbon measures, such as rail, freight, public transport, walking, and cycling. Negative externalities must be included in transport prices, starting with the most polluting modes. Meaningful carbon pricing and tax exemptions can be impactful approaches.
Until now, public subsidies for fossil fuels have largely locked society into carbon-intensive road transport. Moving towards decarbonised transport systems will require the reform of transport subsidies in a manner that is socially, environmentally and economically responsible. The elimination of fossil fuel subsidies enables the acceleration of clean mobility and releases the resources needed to implement low carbon solutions.
Shift finance towards low carbon and resilient transport priorities, eliminate fossil fuel subsidies and phase out internal combustion engines.
Integrate urban, transport and land use planning policies and tools to support the achievement of your transport targets
Good urban, transport, and land use planning, such as Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), can incentivise shifts to lower carbon modes, significantly mitigating emissions from the transport sector. Prioritising planning for lower carbon modes of transport, such as high-speed rail systems, has made it possible to better connect urban centres with each other, thus reducing urban sprawl. Including and coordinating planning measures in your NDC can also support a number of other goals related to: public transport, logistics, walking and cycling, safety and accessibility, improved access to goods and services, and wider socio-economic objectives such as place-making and social cohesion.
Integrate urban, transport and land use planning policies and tools to support the achievement of your
transport targets
Set goals and plans for the adaptation and resilience of transport systems
While many NDCs focus largely on mitigation measures, specific goals and plans for adaptation and resilience to climate change are equally important. Transport systems are extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events and sea-level rise, so planning for adaptation and resilience is essential and increases long-term returns on investment.
Set goals and mode-specific measures for the adaptation and resilience of
transport systems.
Accelerate electrification – Include goals on increasing electrification of buses, cars, vans, and two and three-wheelers; and accompany this with low carbon electricity supply and advanced grid integration
Electric vehicles (EVs) are cheaper to run than conventional vehicles, thanks to lower fuel and maintenance costs. The higher the vehicle utilisation rate, the stronger the economic case. Setting electrification sub-targets for specific use cases, such as public and private sector fleets, helps drive market momentum, especially captive fleets with predictable driving and refueling patterns. The shortfall of EV supply from manufacturers and the lack of charging infrastructure are commonly cited barriers to electrification, so policy measures should aim to stimulate EV supply and deployment of charge points.
Accelerate electrification of buses, cars, vans and 2- and 3-wheelers powered by renewable energy sources.
Address freight transport emissions, which account for 40% of energy use in the transport sector
Given that global freight demand could triple by 2050, it is crucial that all NDCs set targets to reduce emissions from this source. While it may seem difficult, clean fuels and improved freight logistics are becoming increasingly more viable, and can provide direct savings for operators and consumers. Investing in sustainable rail, waterway, and multimodal hubs, enhancing system efficiency in freight and logistics, and incentivising low carbon last mile delivery are key measures to include.
Address freight transport emissions, which account for 40% of energy use in the transport sector.
Include goals on aviation and maritime transport – two of the fastest growing sectors
It is essential for countries to use a full range of Avoid-Shift-Improve strategies to address fast-growing aviation and maritime transport emissions, aiming for ambition in line with the Paris Agreement. Some examples include “avoiding” through support for aviation taxes and charges and teleworking arrangements, “shifting” to high speed rail services, and “improving” with new fuels, better operations and more efficient vessels and aircraft design. Countries should propose and support goals on international aviation and maritime transport in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
Include goals on aviation and maritime transport – two of the fastest growing sectors.
SLOCAT
SLOCAT
Changing Transport
SLOCAT, Kühne Foundation
UN-HABITAT
SLOCAT, GCAP & US Dept. of State
ESCAP, SLOCAT, Asian Development Bank and Asian Transport Outlook
SLOCAT and EUROCLIMA
SLOCAT
SLOCAT
Changing Transport
SLOCAT, Kühne Foundation
UN-HABITAT
SLOCAT, GCAP & US Dept. of State
ESCAP, SLOCAT, Asian Development Bank and Asian Transport Outlook
SLOCAT and EUROCLIMA
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