SLoCaT Analysis on Renewable Energy and Transport
Posted by admin on 8 October 2015 - 2:40pm
- In many non-OECD countries (and especially in Asian countries), petroleum based fuels share in total transport fuel has actually increased in spite of initiation of pro-active policies for decarbonising transport fuels (especially through biofuels);
- From 2000 to 2012, biofuel consumption within the transport sector has seen a six-fold increase globally; during the same period, natural gas use in transport modes (excluding pipelines) has experienced a tenfold increase
- For global energy-related emissions to peak latest by 2020, IEA estimates that the share of petroleum-based fuels among transport fuels needs to be decreased from 94% to 87% between 1990 and 2030;
- Policies in support of decarbonisation of fuel would need to be intensified, as IEA projections reveal that even with current policies, there will still be a gap of 2% to 27% (with an average gap of 12%) by 2035 to achieve a 2DS. (See Figure 1).
- First, policies that are currently in place should be fully implemented. For example, in 1992 the United States Energy Policy Act established the goal of having “alternative fuels” replace at least 10% of oil in transport by 2000 and 30% by 2010; however, in 2013 oil remained dominant with a 92% market share
- Second, additional policies must be put into place to increase the diversification of the transport energy mix. IEA believes that to reach a 2DS scenario, sales of electric vehicles will need to exceed 40% of total passenger car sales by 2040, and biofuels will need to support more than 10% of road transport fuel demand by 2040.
- Third, the market attractiveness of policies in favour of decarbonising fuel depends upon the removal of fossil fuel subsidies as current fossil-fuel alternatives are likely to remain uncompetitive in market segments with subsidized fuels.
- Finally, current low oil prices pose a major obstacle to overcoming the current cost of biofuels, and thus the transport sector could also benefit from a low carbon transition in other sectors to help make biofuels more cost competitive.
- Scale up technology transfer through the UNFCCC process (e.g. electric mobility, biofuel technologies) to expand North-South cooperation and accelerate adoption of sustainable approaches to fuel decarbonisation.
- Expand South-South cooperation to further the development of biofuels to reduce carbon emissions while minimizing negative externalities (e.g. deforestation, monocultures).
- Accelerate research in efficient batteries and energy storage systems to reduce prices and increase range in electric vehicles.
- Increase focus on policies promoting the linkage between electric vehicles and renewable energy, which have received little attention to date.
- Consider expansion of biofuel blend mandates, as these numbers have remained relatively stable in recent years.
- Further the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies (i.e. ‘negative’ carbon pricing), building on recent advocacy and monitoring efforts from the Nordic Development Fund, GIZ and others.
- Implement ‘positive’ carbon pricing policies at local, national and global levels, based on successful demonstrations of transport carbon markets and applications of carbon taxes.
- Create dedicated funding streams for sustainable transport (including transport fuel decarbonisation) during national processes for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.
- Prioritise fuel decarbonisation in forthcoming sectoral strategies through the UNFCCC and the global process on Financing for Development (FfD).
- Monetize and capture co-benefits of decarbonizing fuel (e.g. reduced air pollution and health care costs) through enhanced market mechanisms.
 The two-degree scenario (2DS) involves putting in place an emissions trajectory which would result in at least a 50% chance of limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C.
 Including one submission by the European Union representing 25 EU Member States.